Experiences or Courses

As of today, I lost $5000, my initial startup for my Future Trading Account. Did I lost $5k just like that? It actually took me from August 2010 to February 2011, a span of 7 months to lose my initial startup. If I looked it in another way, I could have spend $5000 on a future trading course that span 5 days of intensive training. Would that be different? $5k for a 5 days course or $5k for a 7 months strengthening up one's own psychology, money management and trading methods. I know one of my friend is going for a trading course in Australia that cost almost $10k for a period of 7 days. Is it worth it or would it be better if he would just top up his trading account and used that to further improve his trading experience.

All choices is worth the money provided one learned something that is equivalent to the amount that one paid. This would mean acquiring the knowledge and putting them into action, seeing the result work slowly to where one want it to reach. However, in my view, 7 months of live trading experiences, learning and going through the real thing, managing the 3Ms is better than 7 days of theories. Of course, if during the 7 months, I learned nothing, making mistakes over and over again and not realizing it, cannot control emotion etc could prove to be not so good. In that case, I might as well quit trading altogether. However, to be fair, what makes me think that after another $5k or $10k course, I can be a different man? Yet, to plunge $5k on a trading course is good if one need an initiate booster to get into the trading mindset when one has absolutely no idea where to start. Still I think, go for the cheapest one like Tom Yuen class which I still think value for money.

"A jug fills drop by drop"

Thank You

23rd Wednesday 2011, TY-RDV. Tom has for the third time credit me for the idea of his "Daily Market Analysis" in Facebook where the idea came from another trader's course that I took. Of course, I love the compliment but I felt I should thank him for acting on it as his work benefit me and the rest.

I remember there was a time when I quoted someone 'words of wisdom' to my wife. However, a few weeks later she quoted back to me saying that she heard it from someone else and not dear me. It makes me feel like playing a second fiddler. Probably, she thinks that words like this could not have come out from her hubby's mouth. My ego hurts really bad for a simple thing like this and my mind can play the scene all day long draining out my energy and making other people near me drained out as well.

First, I am sorry. I like to thank my wife for using those words of wisdom on a great occasion as it shows she understand the context and has even applied them as principles to improve her life even though she forgot who had told her. This is because whoever told her those words, seriously... does not make a difference. However, if she would remembered that it was me, she would have strokes my ego, causing me to be seriously attached to it and in time to come, unable to let go when the reverse happened i.e. when my ego got hurt. Similarly, I am glad that Tom find meaning in the Daily Market Analysis and with that, I thank him.

Overall, I thank one for one's openness to hear those words
I thank one for one's time to understand those words
And I thank one for accepting those words as part of one's life
Least but not least, there is no need to thank me as I know it when I know it.

Where's the $1?

Three men eat at a restaurant. The bill comes to $25. They each pay $10. When the waiter brings the $5 change they each take back $1 each and leave a $2 tip. So each man has paid $9, which totals $27. The waiter has the $2 tip, which makes $29, so where's the other $1 gone?

This is a mind boggling riddle that I was told when I was 13 years old and have got no idea where the $1 had gone for really long time. People like to lead others how they want other to perceive, think or react. Just like a magician, the trick is to make sure that s/he get the audience to look where s/he wants them to, just like a herd. Similarly, authors, writers, commentators almost everyone write, say in such a way that they want the audience to follow, believed their views and hence provide all the information that support their views and suppress the opposing ones.

"Believed nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense."

So where's the $1? The $27 the 3 men paid for the meal includes the $2 tips. So $3 (the $1 each men took back and not included) should be added to the $27 instead of double adding the $2 which is already in the $27.

"Whatever words we utter should be chosen with care for people will hear them and be influenced by them for good or ill."

Having said that, all authors, writers, broadcasters whose works are in contact with the mass public ought to know that they held great powers to influence many people with for their works. Hence if they choose the right words, they can motivate people to do good and if they uses the wrong words, they can incite violent and destruction to people's live. Even though the author claims the right to freedom of speech or quoted as one's perspective that need not be taken as factual, not everyone has the ability to differentiate an opinion from a fact which include the author him or herself before the Truth reviews.

"Every thing we see is a perspective. Every word we hear is an opinion"

High Probability Trading

I was introduced to the Monty Hall Problem in the series Numb3rs Season 1 "Manhunt". You can google "Monty Hall Problem" and you should get a lot of hits about this problem. Basically the problem is like this. There are 3 cards and 1 shows a ferrari while the other two show a goat picture. The objective of the game is find the car. The instructions of the game are as follows :-

1. Out of the 3 cards, place your single choice
2. Once placed, out of the two cards, the host will open one of the card that contains the goat
3. The host will ask if you will like to switch
4. This is the last chance to switch and once you decided whether to stay or switch, your choice card will be opened.

A simulation of the Monty Card Problem can be found here.

From the understanding of this problem, one can see that by understanding probability, one can increased the odds of winning.

Let's say that we have 3 traders, 2 who follows a system and 1 who do not have any system.
One of the traders who follow system switches his choice while the other stick to his choice. The one who does not follow the system sometimes stick and sometime stay. If I will to simulate the result of all 3, the one who switches will has the best gain. This is what I call High Probability trading. If one is able to have a system of indicators where each indicators give the probability of winning, average them up and if the sum met a certain threshold for entry, I believed such system will give a really good edge for that trader. Of course, at the same time, one may need to create indicators to determine exit as well.

2012

Based on the Mayan calendar prediction, a major disaster is going to fall on planet Earth at the end of 2012. Googling further, the cause is due to the Sun's "discharge" called solar flare that can cause tsunamis, earthquakes, fires, radiation. So is Hell going burn Earth over? Are natural disaster a sign of God's wrath? Satan's work?

Nature phenomenons are Mother Nature work, the Universe work in an attempt to balance nature and the system respectively. Nature disasters are part of nature phenomenons. They are not brought by Hellish creatures from the underworld. They are just Earth scratching an itch so as to feel at ease again. How Hellish it will get at dooms day does not depends on or created by these tsunamis, earthquakes etc. It will depends on how one react to them. If one felt trap inside inside, desperate to live, not knowing what to do, screaming, hitting, killing each other just to survive, one is sure to feel Hell on earth. The disaster is already bad enough and if one react that way, one has make the disaster even worst for oneself. Imagine how many people will feel that way fighting, looting, killing each other to save themselves. Hell will definitely freezes over.

However if one understand that universe is at work, understand the universe will give one an avatar after she finished, one may be in Heaven just before disaster struck. Would everyone be able to remain calm when disaster strikes?

Control your mind before your mind kills you even before the disaster actually happens.


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Credit yourself

"Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense."

The name of the quote was not given as it is just a name. The one who gave the words was not highlighted because the words are more important than Him. However the words are worth nothing if you don't understand them. So ultimately, the credits should goes to you if you understand these words which make the words worthy, the author enlighten and the name burning bright.

"To live a pure unselfish life, one must count nothing as one's own in the midst of abundance."

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Within

Peace comes from within. Do not seek it without.

Similarly, anger comes from within. Do not destroy it without.

Everything come from within. Hence do not seek or destroy them without.




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